Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to create uncertainty across global shipping and supply chains. While diplomatic talks have taken place in recent weeks, the situation remains unstable, with developments in the Middle East already influencing oil prices, carrier routing decisions and overall market confidence.
Since the conflict escalated in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has remained a key focal point due to its importance as one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Any disruption in this region can quickly impact fuel markets, transport costs and supply chain planning worldwide.
Because the Middle East plays such an important role in global trade, disruption can extend far beyond the immediate conflict zone, affecting transit times, costs and reliability for importers and exporters around the world.
Latest developments
Increased security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz
Recent reports indicate that the United States is moving forward with plans to introduce a naval blockade targeting vessels travelling to and from Iranian ports, following unsuccessful negotiations aimed at reducing tensions.
This has placed particular focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Around 20% of global oil shipments normally pass through this route, meaning any disruption can quickly influence fuel prices and wider transport costs.
Some oil tanker operators have already begun avoiding the area, reflecting increased caution across the shipping industry as risk levels continue to be assessed.
There have also been reports of increased naval presence and activity aimed at maintaining safe navigation routes in the region. Situations involving vessel warnings and heightened security monitoring highlight the sensitivity of this key trade corridor.
Diplomatic talks have yet to deliver a long-term solution
Recent discussions between the US and Iran aimed at easing tensions have not yet resulted in a long-term agreement.
While a temporary two-week ceasefire earlier in April provided a short period of stability, negotiations have not yet produced a lasting resolution. As a result, the situation remains fluid, with governments and carriers continuing to assess operational risk.
Political developments continue to evolve, and market conditions remain sensitive to further announcements or changes in diplomatic progress.
Oil prices responding to market uncertainty
Oil prices have again moved above $100 per barrel following the latest developments, reflecting concern about possible disruption to supply moving through the Gulf region.
Energy markets typically respond quickly to geopolitical developments in key transit regions, and volatility in fuel prices can influence transport costs. Even where cargo does not transit the Middle East directly, changes in fuel costs can still have a wider global impact.
International response
Governments, including the UK, are continuing to monitor developments closely, with an emphasis on maintaining freedom of navigation and stability across international shipping lanes.
Different countries have taken varying positions regarding the proposed blockade, but there is broad recognition of the importance of keeping major trade routes open to minimise wider economic disruption.
What this means for supply chains
While the situation continues to develop, we are already seeing the types of market reactions that typically follow geopolitical disruption in strategically important regions.
Potential impacts include:
Rising transport costs
Higher fuel prices and increased war risk premiums can place upward pressure on freight rates across air, sea and road transport.
Possible route adjustments
Carriers may review routing decisions to reduce exposure to higher-risk areas, which can sometimes increase transit times.
Schedule reliability challenges
Changes to vessel rotations or flight paths can create knock-on effects across global networks, even where cargo is not directly moving through the Middle East.
Potential insurance considerations
Periods of instability in key transit regions can lead to increased insurance risk assessments for cargo moving through affected areas.
Short-notice operational changes
Geopolitical situations can evolve quickly, meaning conditions may shift with limited notice as diplomatic developments continue.
Our approach
We continue to monitor developments closely and stay in regular contact with carriers and global partners across our network.
Where needed, we support customers by:
- Reviewing routing options
- Monitoring schedule changes
- Providing updates on market conditions
- Advising on planning flexibility where appropriate
As with any period of geopolitical uncertainty, allowing additional time when planning shipments can help reduce the risk of disruption.
If you would like to talk through how current conditions may affect your shipments, our team is always happy to help – get in touch.
Please note: This update is based on information available as of 13 April 2026 and is subject to change as the situation develops. Operational impacts may vary depending on carrier decisions, routing adjustments and geopolitical developments.