Two Years of Disruption
Nearly two years after the Red Sea conflict began, global shipping is still feeling its impact. What started as a regional security issue has become a long-running challenge for international trade – one that continues to reshape how goods move between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The Situation Today
Attacks on commercial vessels remain a serious concern.
- In late September, the Dutch-flagged Minervagracht was struck by an explosive device in the Gulf of Aden. All 19 crew members were evacuated, though one sadly later died from injuries. (Reuters, 7 Oct 2025)
- Earlier this summer, the bulk carrier Eternity C was attacked and sank after multiple strikes. Four crew members lost their lives, and several were injured or went missing. (Seatrade Maritime News, 29 Jul 2025)
These incidents reflect the ongoing volatility in the region and explain why many major shipping lines continue to avoid transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Instead, vessels are taking the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope – adding thousands of miles to each voyage.
The Ripple Effects
The diversions continue to have far-reaching consequences for supply chains worldwide:
- Transit times stretch – voyages that once took three to four weeks now often take over five.
- Costs increase – higher fuel use, longer crew deployment, and rising war-risk insurance premiums have all pushed up shipping costs.
- Schedules shift – unpredictable arrival times make forward planning difficult for importers and exporters.
Some analysts estimate that container traffic through the Suez Canal remains down by more than 70% compared with pre-crisis levels, while traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has more than doubled. (Project44, Sep 2025)
Insurance, Security, and Risk
Insurance premiums for ships entering the Red Sea have risen sharply, with some war-risk surcharges climbing from around 0.6% to nearly 2%. (CSIS, Feb 2025)
Naval missions, including the EU’s Operation Aspides, continue to patrol the area, providing escorts and surveillance for commercial shipping.
Despite these efforts, attacks have become more sophisticated, often involving drones and unmanned surface vessels. The risk environment remains unpredictable, and even vessels with no direct ties to the regional conflict have been caught in crossfire.
Diplomatic Efforts and Regional Tensions
In May 2025, a limited U.S.–Houthi ceasefire was announced, reducing American strikes in Yemen but not fully halting attacks on commercial shipping. (BBC, 20 May 2025)
Diplomatic talks involving Oman, Egypt, and other regional partners continue, but progress is fragile.
Broader tensions linked to the conflict in Gaza and Iran’s regional influence have also shaped the security picture, making a lasting solution more complex.
Could the Gaza Deal Unlock the Red Sea Route?
The recently announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has raised cautious optimism that wider regional tensions, including those in the Red Sea, may start to ease. Following the news, Maersk’s share price dipped amid speculation that a safer Red Sea could reopen sooner, potentially restoring shorter Asia–Europe routes and reducing freight costs.
However, shipping lines remain cautious. Until attacks on commercial vessels stop completely and security is proven over time, carriers are unlikely to rush back through the Red Sea. For now, the industry is watching closely while keeping alternative routing and contingency plans in place.
Looking Ahead
Even if attacks decrease, a full return to normal Red Sea operations will take time. Carriers, insurers, and governments will move cautiously before restoring regular service through the region.
Our Beckchoice team continues to plan ahead, monitor developments daily, and maintain flexible routing so customer cargo keeps moving safely and efficiently.
Sources
Reuters | BBC | Seatrade Maritime News | The Loadstar | Project44 | UNCTAD | Xeneta | CSIS | CFR | Ocean Mind | The Guardian
This article summarises publicly available information from reputable news and trade sources. All details are accurate to the best of our knowledge as of 14 October 2025.