A couple of weeks ago, we shared an update on the potential return to the Suez Canal and what it could mean for global shipping. Since then, several major carriers, along with industry analysts, have released new statements that offer a clearer picture of what may happen next as the security situation continues to shift.
While there are early signs of improvement, analysts stress that a full-scale return to the Red Sea is still far from guaranteed.
Latest Security Signals: Early Optimism, but Big Questions Remain
According to recent reports, Houthi militia have signalled a halt to attacks on Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If sustained, this would be a significant development for global trade, but analysts are urging caution.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, explained: “Details are sketchy and you cannot base the safety of crews, ships and cargo on the word of Houthi militia. Carriers need far more assurance than that and, perhaps more importantly, so do insurance companies.”
Sand also noted that while a few carriers have cautiously tested the route in recent weeks, overall container ship transits through the Suez Canal have continued to trend downwards throughout 2025. A meaningful industry-wide return would require much firmer guarantees and consistent evidence of stability.
Hapag-Lloyd: Still Avoiding the Red Sea
Hapag-Lloyd has confirmed that it has no immediate plans to send vessels back through the Red Sea or the Suez Canal. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen explained the company’s position very clearly in a recent analyst call: “For the moment, I don’t see us returning very soon.” He added that the company is continuing to track the situation closely: “We will continue to monitor the situation and speak to our shipping partners.”
For now, Hapag-Lloyd is concentrating on improving the efficiency of its Gemini Network and maintaining stability on Cape of Good Hope routings. This means that longer transit times will continue on Hapag-Lloyd services until the carrier is confident that conditions have improved.
CMA CGM: Cautiously Testing the Waters
CMA CGM is taking a different approach by cautiously re-entering the Red Sea region.
Earlier this month, the 17,859 TEU CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin became the first ultra-large container ship in nearly two years to complete a Red Sea transit. The CMA CGM Zheng He, its sister vessel, is also operating in the Suez and Red Sea corridor.
Both ships are sailing on the eastbound leg of the French Asia Line 1 service, part of the Ocean Alliance NEU4 rotation. CMA CGM CFO Ramon Fernandez commented on the carrier’s strategy: “For now, CMA CGM is maintaining limited Suez transits when security allows.” He also highlighted the broader outlook: “What we anticipate is … the possible reopening of the Suez route during 2026.”
Fernandez noted that each Ocean Alliance member, including COSCO Shipping, OOCL and Evergreen Marine, is making its own assessment about returning. This means the market may see a range of operational decisions for some time.
Capacity Impact and the Bigger Market Picture
Longer routings via the Cape of Good Hope continue to absorb an estimated 2 million TEU of global container shipping capacity. A large-scale return to the Red Sea would release this capacity, but with notable consequences.
Xeneta highlighted that:
Spot rates on Asia–North Europe, Mediterranean and US East Coast trades (all of which normally transit the Red Sea) are already down more than 50% since the start of 2025.
Carriers are moving close to loss-making territory.
Even without a Red Sea reopening, global freight rates are forecast to fall by up to -25% in 2026.
A sudden influx of vessel capacity back into the Suez route could push rates even lower unless carriers implement mitigating measures such as slow steaming, blank sailings, idling or accelerated scrapping.
For shippers, this means that transit times may improve eventually, but the transition period could be turbulent, with schedule reshuffles and equipment rebalancing challenges.
What This Means for Supply Chains
Different carriers, different transit times
Some lines may gradually shorten voyages as they test the Red Sea route, while others will remain routed via the Cape.
A step-by-step return, not a sudden shift
Even with positive signals, the industry is still far from returning to 2023 levels.
Rate volatility is likely
Capacity changes could cause short-term or unexpected movements in ocean freight rates.
Planning ahead is essential
If carriers begin reinstating Suez-based services, shippers should expect temporary disruptions during the transition.
Carrier-specific detail matters more than ever
Routing decisions will vary widely, so accurate schedule information will be key for time-sensitive cargo.
How We’re Supporting Customers
Our team is tracking carrier decisions closely and keeping in touch with our global partners so we can give customers the most accurate picture possible. We’re comparing service options, checking realistic ETAs and advising on the best routes based on current conditions.
Our mission remains simple: to keep your supply chain moving smoothly, even as conditions evolve.
Final Thought
There are promising signs of progress, and some carriers are taking cautious steps toward re-entering the Red Sea. But with uncertainty still high, and with capacity, safety and cost all in flux, the industry remains in a gradual, careful phase of adjustment rather than a full return.
We will continue sharing updates as new information becomes available.
Please note: The information provided in this blog is accurate as of 18 November 2025. However, the security situation, carrier routing decisions and global shipping dynamics in the Red Sea and Suez Canal region are constantly evolving. Changes may occur at short notice, and readers should check the latest carrier updates and schedule notices before making operational decisions.
References
- “Hapag-Lloyd CEO says return to Suez route not yet in sight but looking closely” – Reuters, 13 Nov 2025. Reuters
- “CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin clears Red Sea safely as French giant steps up tests for return” – Lloyd’s List, 10 Nov 2025. Lloyd’s List
- “CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin becomes first ultra-large container ship in 2 years to transit Red Sea” – India Shipping News, 12 Nov 2025. India Shipping News
- “Giant CMA CGM vessel marks return of ultra-large ships to Suez Canal” – Container-News.com, Nov 2025. Container News
- “Analysts warn carriers still require assurances despite Houthis signalling a halt to attacks” – Xeneta, Nov 2025. Xeneta